John Ellis: “And, like DeSantis, the others will spend most of the next 7 months flying in and out of Iowa, campaigning there one or two or three days a week, depending. That’s how George H.W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses in 1980. He lived there. That’s what the others will have to do as well, if they hope to become the challenger.”
“This becomes a real problem for DeSantis for mathematical reasons. If you take the other ten candidates and you average out their support at, say, 3.5% (which seems reasonable), then 35% of the Iowa caucus-attenders are spoken for.”
“How might that look? It might look like this: 15% for Pence, 7% for Scott, 5% for Christie, 3% here, 3 percent there and so on down to 1% each. Suddenly, 35% of the vote is spoken for. Ninety percent of that 35% can be fairly described as ‘not Trump’ Republicans. Which leaves De Santis competing with Trump on Trump’s turf.”
“Winning on that turf requires an argument a lot more compelling than ‘I’m more anti-woke than Trump.’ Its impossible to imagine anyone less woke than Trump.”
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