The Path to Beating Trump in the GOP Primary

Mike Murphy: “For all the punditocracy noise about national primary voter polls and Donald Trump’s supposed unbreakable lock on the Republican Party (I’m still dubious), in my view the nomination race boils down to a brutally simple formula: somebody has to beat Trump in Iowa and then a week or so later in New Hampshire. That would upend the race and Trump would quickly melt into orange goo Wicked Witch of the West style. And the polling I see shows Trump doing worse in Iowa and New Hampshire — where he is starting to have competition — than he is nationally.”

“With enough vodka, you can formulate this beat Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire scenario for each of the major contenders. DeSantis could have a comeback, he’s doing better on the ground in Iowa than in the airy salons and green rooms of the Beltway conventional wisdom machine. But the terror of Tallahassee is still a lousy candidate with campaign mired in a Stalingrad of fratricide while saddled with a lousy strategy of being a dime-store version of Donald Trump. Nikki Haley might have a terrific debate moment, which somehow fuels a comeback. Maybe. But probably not. Vivek Ramaswamy is enjoying the primary cycle’s usual Ben Carson/Herman Cain/Steve Forbes outsider oddball’s early bump, but I doubt it will last through the winter. Doug Burgum, despite a terrific launch video, is inexplicably running for Secretary of Energy. I’ll discuss the ceiling hanging over Chris Christie a bit later.”

“To my mind, it is Sen. Tim Scott who has the biggest set of advantages.”