Charlie Cook: “The first Republican presidential debate did nothing to diminish Trump’s position as the prohibitive favorite for the 2024 Republican nomination. In fact, a GOP presidential debate without Trump reminds me of the old line asking, ‘If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?’ According at least to initial signs, viewership was considerably below that of the August 2015 Republican debate.”
“It’s a real reach to say that any of the eight candidates on the stage ‘won’ the debate or exceeded expectations. Arguably the debate’s loser was the Fox Business Channel, which is obligated to carry the next GOP debate without Trump on Sept. 27, an event that will likely draw still fewer viewers. It is a good bet that this field will be smaller by Labor Day and smaller still by the time of that next debate. Given that the thresholds required for participation will be tighter for the next event, that alone could effectively push some out of the race.”
“Some will have personal or professional agendas requiring them to pretend that this is still a real contest, and that the outcome is still in doubt, but that doesn’t change the reality that, barring Trump having some health-related problem before the convention, this nomination is settled. Indeed, the only thing that could prevent this being a rematch between President Biden and Trump would more likely be medical than political or legal.”
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