Trump’s Odds of Winning the GOP Nomination

FiveThirtyEight: “As of writing, this model gives Trump around a 78 percent chance of winning the nomination (sound familiar?) based on the polls.”

“But there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding how much we can trust surveys to produce a reliable signal in this primary — the biggest problem being that, historically, only a handful of candidates were polling around 50 percent nationally at this point in the cycle. Thanks to that small sample size, Trump’s ‘true’ win probability could be as low as 54 percent.”