Why Biden Just Can’t Shake Trump in the Polls

Ron Brownstein: “Political operatives and scientists agree on one key reason Biden and Trump remain so closely paired in a potential rematch: In our polarized political era, far fewer voters than in the past are open to switching sides for any reason.”

“But more than structural ‘calcification,’ as three political scientists called this phenomenon in a recent book on the 2020 election titled The Bitter End, explains the standoff in this summer’s polls between Biden and Trump. The two men are pinioned so close together also because they are caught between the four forces that have most powerfully reshaped the electoral landscape since they first met, in the November 2020 presidential election. Two of these dynamics are benefiting Democrats; two are bolstering Republicans. Combined, these four factors appear to be largely offsetting each other, preventing either man from establishing a meaningful advantage as they proceed toward their seemingly inevitable rematch.”

Said GOP consultant Mike Madrid: “Look, anybody who thinks this is not going to be very competitive … they are not paying attention to American politics. It’s going to be close. It’s going to be close for the next 20 years.”