Why Trump May Need High Voter Turnout

Harry Enten: “Donald Trump is in a better position against Joe Biden now than at any point during the entire 2020 campaign. The former president leads the current president in more than his fair share of polls of registered voters, including in a number of key swing states.”

“But it seems plausible that these initial polls may be underestimating Biden’s position. In a change from the usual expected dynamic in which Democrats are supposed to do better with higher turnout, Biden may benefit when pollsters look at likely voters instead of all registered voters.”

“Put another way, Trump may do better in an election in which turnout is higher.”