Trump’s Lead May Be Smaller Than It Looks

The Economist: “The size of Mr Trump’s lead varies widely by the quality of pollster, as assessed by FiveThirtyEight… This early in the election cycle, the pollsters in its highest tier of quality have conducted polls only sporadically… However, in total, 13 polls have been conducted in 2024 by firms in this group. On average, they show a virtual tie between Mr Trump and Mr Biden.”

“By contrast, most polls released in January 2024 have come from pollsters’ middle class: firms with good but not exceptional records. Polls in these (‘good’ and ‘decent’) tiers show Mr Trump with a 2.4-point and 1.7-point lead respectively. Meanwhile, pollsters with a poor record or no prior published results show Mr Trump with an average margin over Mr Biden of around six points.”