Suozzi Holds Small Lead in New York Special Election

A new Siena poll in New York’s 3rd congressional district finds Tom Suozzi (D) leading Mazi Pilip (R), 48% to 44% among likely voters, in the special election to replace disgraced Rep. George Santos (R).

Said pollster Don Levy: “Although these voters are special election voters – the most likely of likely voters – it is noteworthy that despite Suozzi holding a 4-point edge over Pilip, voters say that if they could vote in the 2024 Presidential election today, they give former President Donald Trump a 5-point advantage over President Joe Biden.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The Democrats probably should win it, and if we felt compelled to lean the race, we’d push it ever so slightly and anxiously toward them. But it’s close enough that we’re just going to hold it, formally, as a Toss-up in our ratings.”