Share of Democratic Registrations Is Declining

Nate Cohn: “Why are Democrats doing so poorly among newly registered voters? Unfortunately, it’s hard to say. Voter registration data can be weird. It can be influenced by events that spur new registrations, like the run-up to a presidential primary or a Supreme Court decision like the overturning of Roe v. Wade. In those cases, shifts in voter registration might not have any longer-term meaning.”

“New voter registration also draws from an out-of-the-ordinary group of people — those previously unregistered, those newly eligible, and people re-registering at a new address. Trends among these voters may not be representative of the broader population.”