Who Will Show Up to Vote?

Charlie Cook: “We have a group of voters who are not enthusiastic about either candidate, and many may well end up deciding not to decide. In some minds, not casting a ballot is becoming a very real and deliberate option, a way to show their displeasure with their choices and the nominees that the two parties have offered up. They look at the field of independent or third-party candidates and do not see a political knight in shining armor worthy of their support.”

“After record voter-turnout levels in the 2018 midterm and 2020 presidential elections, and an impressively high participation rate in 2022, this election looks to break that streak. But will it be disproportionately lower or higher for either side, or is it more about some demographic groups being even more disillusioned than the others?”

“If we knew the answer, we’d probably know who’s going to win.”