Third Party Candidates Typically Fade

Walter Shapiro: “Never underestimate the potency of the wasted-vote syndrome. No matter what voters tell pollsters, they often rethink their political choices when they realize that their favored candidate cannot win.”

“What this means is that it is hard to assess the impact of candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. What will be particularly tricky is predicting in advance whom he will take votes from. After all, political analysts are still arguing over whether Ross Perot’s third-party candidacy in 1992 gave Bill Clinton the White House.”