Nate Silver: “The problem is, the pitch is kind of a lie — and everyone knows it. Not the Trump part — he very much is some sort of chaos agent. But the Biden part. A steady hand? Absolutely nothing about Biden’s debate performance two weeks ago — and almost nothing that’s happened since then — suggests a president who’s in command of the situation. (I don’t mean to make light of the president’s situation, but Biden’s hands might literally be unsteady.) And I doubt even most Biden’s ardent supporters would bet on him completing another 4-year term until he’s 86.”
“Instead, the campaign is asking voters to make a risky bet: not a choice between Trump and Biden so much as one between the Blue Mystery Box and the Red Mystery Box. As Biden ages further, the White House will almost inevitably have to stage-manage his public appearances even more carefully and take more and more decisions off his plate. And then at some point between 2025 and 2028, they’ll probably seek to transition the presidency to Kamala Harris. This might go very poorly. Would Biden listen to his staff — or, as recent reporting suggests, does Hunter Biden have his ear instead? Who’s really in charge in the event of an international crisis? And if Biden isn’t willing to gracefully exit the stage now, who says he would later?”
