Polls May Determine Biden’s Fate

Nate Cohn: “The average of polls has shown Donald Trump with an almost uninterrupted lead for 10 months, and this undoubtedly shapes the calculation of Democrats in Washington. It’s hard to believe there would be any serious drive to replace Mr. Biden if the polls showed him clearly leading, as they did throughout the last election.”

“This puts a big responsibility on polls and pollsters. The fate of the president may not rest in their hands, but — at the very least — it will be influenced by their methods. In a sense, it is what polling is supposed to do in a democracy: give political actors insight into the will of the people, enabling decision makers to better respond to the demands of the electorate.”

“At the same time, it’s not obvious that polling is up to the challenge.”