Back to a Competitive Race

Charlie Cook: “The most important thing is that we now have a competitive race. Biden’s race was uphill before the June debate; by last week, it was edging closer to impossible.”

“But there are important constants. A week ago when Biden was facing Trump, 16 states with 194 electoral votes had voted for Democrats in each of the last five presidential elections. Twenty-two other states with 175 electors had voted Republican in each of those five elections. That hasn’t changed. The states that had been locked into the Democratic base still will be, just as the core Republican states will stay in the GOP column. The core Biden vote will be the core Harris vote; the core Trump vote will stay with him. The fight will be for the 11 states (and the 2nd Congressional Districts of both Maine and Nebraska) that aren’t locked into either column.”

“The next focal point will be Harris’s choice of a running mate.”