Could the Right Running Mate Swing the Election?

Nate Silver: “So let me be absurdly precise, given that these estimates are based on relatively small sample sizes and include a lot of intrinsic uncertainty.”

“The model estimates that having a VP from Pennsylvania would improve a ticket’s margin in the Keystone State by slightly more than 0.4 percentage points. In Arizona, the effect would be slightly larger according to the model’s logic — a hair over 0.7 percentage points — since it has fewer electoral votes…”

“The home state of a VP pick is a worthwhile tiebreaker if you’re otherwise indifferent toward whom you choose— and not much more than that. If there are other electoral reasons… or other reasons involving the line of succession and the future implications for the Democratic Party, those are an order of magnitude more important.”