Removing RFK Jr. from Forecast Didn’t Hurt Harris

Nate Silver: “Before explaining the methodological change in detail, let me show you the impact on our national polling average. Both Trump and Kamala Harris have gained ground versus yesterday’s model run, the last one to include Kennedy. Harris’s polling average has improved from 48.0 percent yesterday to 48.8 percent today (+0.8), while Trump’s has increased from 43.7 to 44.8 (+1.1).”

“First, yes, Trump has gained slightly more than Harris from the change, although it’s pretty minor, a net gain of 0.3 percentage points. And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a convention bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, She’s now ahead by 4.0 points in the national polling average versus 2.3 points when the DNC started.”

“Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday.”