Trump Holds Edge in Latest Forecast

Nate Silver’s forecast gives Donald Trump a 60% chance to win the presidential election with Kamala Harris at just 40%.

“Subjectively this seemed to me like a decent day of polling for Kamala Harris, but she was hurt by this series of polls from a Democratic group that showed her exactly tied with Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Our polling averages apply a relatively harsh ‘house effects’ adjustment to partisan-sponsored polls, so it interprets ties in partisan polls as losing. And PA/MI/WI polls are really important to the forecast.”