Inside the Predictive Power of Washington’s Primaries

“Political polls, betting markets and statistical forecasts have become ubiquitous as November approaches. But there’s one predictive tool you may have missed: primary elections in Washington state, which took place last month,” the New York Times reports.

“It’s an indicator that election nerds pay particular attention to, for good reason: The general election results in the state a few months later tend to move in the same direction — whether becoming more Republican or more Democratic — as the rest of the country.”

“This year, results from Washington state are cause for some optimism among Democrats. They suggest a national environment somewhat similar to 2020, when Joe Biden outgained Donald Trump by 4.5 percentage points in the national popular vote and Democrats retained the House.”