Trump’s Best Bet Remains Less Engaged Voters

Cook Political Report: “All year, we’ve been tracking a defining datapoint of 2024: the divergent political behavior of ‘high-engagement’ voters — the most civic-minded folks who show up in every presidential, midterm, primary and school board race — and more peripherally-engaged voters who are less ideological and don’t eat, sleep and breathe politics or cable news but nevertheless show up to vote in presidential years.”

“Our final poll of the seven key battleground states shows this gap persisting, with Vice President Kamala Harris maintaining her edge with the former group but former President Donald Trump standing to benefit if November sees higher turnout among the latter.”

Key findings: Among voters who always show up, Harris still leads by four, 51% to 47%. But among low/mid-propensity, Trump’s back up to a 52% to 45% lead.