The Race Has Barely Budged

Nate Silver: “Polling data over the past week or so has been a mixed bag, but with more bright spots for Trump than for Harris if you squint. However, sentiment about the race has shifted in a GOP direction, sometimes to the point of outright panic by Democrats, in a way that isn’t really justified by the polling.”

“Versus a week ago, Trump has gained 0.3 points in our national average, 0.9 points in MI, 0.8 points in WI, 0.4 points in NV, 0.3 points in PA, 0.2 points in NC and 0.1 points in AZ. Harris has gained 0.3 points in GA.”

“So a slight move in a Trump direction, and the race is on the verge of becoming truly 50/50 rather than virtually 50/50. But this is pretty minor movement and could also just reflect noise.”