Trump Is Near His Ceiling

Jonathan Last: “To my eyes, this suggests that Trump’s 2016 and 2020 numbers should be substantially similar to his 2024 numbers.”

“Which in turn means that the polling on Trump’s vote share today is (a) probably accurate and (b) close to his ceiling pretty much across the board.”

“None of this means that Kamala Harris will win. But it does suggest that there won’t be surprises on Election Day in Trump’s column. He’s going to hit the numbers he’s at.”

“Does this make you feel any better?”

“For me, the answer is yes, because it clarifies what Harris has to do. She’s not fighting a phantom. Her task is to find that extra point or two and turn out her people. That seems more achievable than beating a smoke monster who might magically outperform his polling by +3.”