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Trump Is Near His Ceiling

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Jonathan Last: “To my eyes, this suggests that Trump’s 2016 and 2020 numbers should be substantially similar to his 2024 numbers.”

“Which in turn means that the polling on Trump’s vote share today is (a) probably accurate and (b) close to his ceiling pretty much across the board.”

“None of this means that Kamala Harris will win. But it does suggest that there won’t be surprises on Election Day in Trump’s column. He’s going to hit the numbers he’s at.”

“Does this make you feel any better?”

“For me, the answer is yes, because it clarifies what Harris has to do. She’s not fighting a phantom. Her task is to find that extra point or two and turn out her people. That seems more achievable than beating a smoke monster who might magically outperform his polling by +3.”

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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