Why Polling Is Harder Than Ever

Pollster David Byler, writing for MSNBC:

“Polling is built on a simple idea: If we talk to a representative, miniature version of a state or country, we can estimate what the whole state or country thinks. It’s like getting a sample at an ice cream shop: one well-mixed spoonful tells you what a whole cone will taste like.”

“But it’s getting tougher to reach the people needed to build that mini-country or mini-state. Response rates — how often people are willing to pick up a cold call or answer a text from us — have been dropping for decades.”

The related challenge: “We have to model our way around the fact that nobody talks to us. That’s risky.”