Jonathan Bernstein: “What appears to have happened was a national swing to the Republicans from where they were was four or even eight years ago.”
“Why? Sorry, we have no idea, and if you want to know the real reason I advise patience. Elections are complicated things, and we haven’t even counted all the votes yet. It’s going to take time to figure it out.”
“There are two different processes that go on. The wonks (political scientists who study these things, and also all sorts of other analysts) will try to figure out what actually happened. Meanwhile, every politically active group will quickly claim credit or, on the Democratic side, deflect blame. That matters going forward, because politicians and other political actors will respond to whatever they think happened in the election.”
