Higher Turnout Might Not Have Helped Harris

Nate Cohn: “It is wrong to assume that the voters who stayed home would have backed Ms. Harris. Even if they had been dragged to the polls, it might not have meaningfully helped her.”

“How is that possible? It’s because the low turnout among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups — especially nonwhite voters — was a reflection of lower support for Ms. Harris: Millions of Democrats soured on their party and stayed home, reluctantly came back to Ms. Harris or even made the leap to Mr. Trump. And if those who stayed home had voted, it wouldn’t have been an enormous help to Ms. Harris, based on Times/Siena polling linked to validated records of who did or didn’t vote.”