The Unknown Unknowns Lurk in Iran

Playbook: “In the run-up to the war in Iraq, then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was asked in 2002 whether there was any evidence that Saddam Hussein’s government was actually attempting to supply terrorists with weapons of mass destruction. His response was evasive but memorable.”

Said Rumsfeld: “There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.”

“Now, one generation later, the U.S. is again in an undeclared war in the Middle East. Much about it is very different — more on that in a moment. But right now, the known unknowns vastly outnumber the known knowns, while the unknown unknowns lurk around the corner.”