A Dramatic Shift

Dan Pfeiffer: “In terms of education and income, the Democratic Party of 2024 looks a lot like the Republican coalition that supported Mitt Romney in 2012: more college-educated, wealthier, and more suburban. There are advantages to this shift. Because college-educated suburban voters are high-propensity voters, Democrats tend to do very well in special elections and midterms.”

“But it’s a huge challenge in presidential elections. According to the 2024 exit polls, 59% of voters reported making less than $100,000 (Trump won that group by 4), and 57% did not graduate college (Trump won non-college graduates by 13 points).”

“This represents a complete inversion of the long-term coalitions of both parties. Democrats may call ourselves the party of the working class, but fewer and fewer working-class voters seem to agree.”