Shutdown Fight May Impact 2028 More Than 2026

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “With the benefit of hindsight, we can say that the ‘but he fights’ wing of the GOP ultimately won control of the party, culminating in the Trump era that we are living in now. Democrats, meanwhile, are in a position similar to Republicans a dozen years ago—trying to navigate a situation where at least some segment of their base wants to be able to say ‘but they fight!’ even as their likelihood of winning that fight is debatable at best.”

“As we said above, we doubt this shutdown matters in the context of the 2026 midterm, but the kind of leader Democrats want in the longer-term will be hashed out during the 2028 presidential primary. Republicans made their choice in 2016, opting for a candidate who fit the ‘but he fights’ mold.”

“Whatever kind of candidate Democrats nominate in 2028, perhaps there will have been something instructive about that choice that we remember from this shutdown.”