Republicans Are Facing a Blow Out in the Midterms

Charlie Cook: “It is pretty clear that Trump’s mid-decade gerrymandering play is not going to build the cushion Republicans wanted in red states to help them retain their House majority. While it’s conceivable that it could backfire and cost them seats, it’s more likely to make little difference at all. Each party will simply have the chance to elect its own rubber-stamp members, making an already dysfunctional House even more so, no matter who ends up in charge.”

“If Republicans can keep their net losses under 15 seats, they will be lucky, but that’s only because the battlefield is now so narrow. If the playing field of competitive districts were anything like it was 20 or 30 years ago, they would be staring at losses potentially three times that. The worst-case scenario for Republicans now would probably be losses in the 20-to-25-seat range.”

“Just remember, when a party is having a bad night in the House, it almost always gets bigger and goes deeper than expected, and the individual race count often underestimates what can happen when a party has a very unpopular president.”