A Referendum on Donald Trump

Charlie Cook: “There is little reason to believe that the November election will be anything but a referendum on President Trump. With the first anniversary of Trump’s second inauguration arriving Tuesday, we’ve seen a flurry of new polls in recent days. Trump’s job-approval averages sit at 42 percent in both the New York Times and the Silver Bulletin averages. The RealClearPolitics average has him 1 point higher, at 43 percent.”

“While things in politics can certainly change, rarely are there major directional shifts during the year of a midterm election; it’s more about degree than direction.”