Robert Kagan: “At the largest level, whatever outcome we eventually get, however decent, it will be because the United States brought enormous power to bear. And history shows it’s not enough to bring that power to bear to secure a victory. You have to keep it there to sustain the victory. The United States won a big victory in World War I, totally transformed the balance of power in Europe in a way favorable to peace, then pulled out—and then the balance of power got refashioned in ways that didn’t sustain peace, and we ended up in World War II. Something similar could happen in the Middle East if the U.S. brings great power to bear to create a certain situation but isn’t willing to keep it there.”
“That’s why Trump is at a fork in the road. It seems to me Trump faces one of two choices: establish a long-term, large American military presence to sustain whatever gains the war has made, or pull back and let things take whatever course they take. I find both highly problematic. But splitting the difference won’t solve anything.”
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