Trump May Say the War Is Over But It’s Not

Robert Pape: “President Trump may signal that the Iran war is ‘over’ in his address tonight. That will dominate the headlines. It will also be deeply misleading.”

“A political declaration does not end a war when the underlying strategic reality remains unchanged. Iran has already demonstrated the ability to exert control over roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil flows—not by closing the Strait of Hormuz, but by making it unreliable. That power does not disappear if the United States steps back.”

“At the same time, Israel’s campaign against Iran will not stop. If anything, a U.S. pullback increases the pressure on Israel to act independently and repeatedly.”

“The result is not a return to normal.”