Why the Ceasefire Keeps Failing

Robert Pape: “In a matter of a day, the system snapped back to escalation. This is not a story about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing. It is a story about zero-sum conflict, where the core issues cannot be divided, traded, or deferred without forcing one side to accept a strategic loss—a direct contest over relative power.”

“At the center of the war is a fact that cannot be negotiated away: Iran either retains a nuclear capability on the threshold of weapons, or it does not. There is no stable middle ground that satisfies both sides. For the United States, allowing Iran to sustain that capability would fundamentally alter the regional balance of power, weaken deterrence, and undermine the credibility of long-standing nonproliferation commitments. For Iran, relinquishing that capability—especially under coercion—would expose the regime to future pressure and potential regime-threatening vulnerability.”

“This is not a bargaining problem where incremental concessions can produce equilibrium. It is a zero-sum condition, where the outcome directly determines the security of both sides—because it determines their relative power.”