Democrats Lead by Six Points in Battleground Districts

A new Cook Political Report poll of House districts rated as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat — districts which President Trump won by an average of two points in 2024 — Democrats hold a six-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 50% to 44%.

Key takeaway: “If that advantage were to hold come November, any district Trump carried by 10 points or less could be in significant danger of flipping into Democratic hands.”

Another takeway: “In 2018, the last successful midterm election for Democrats, independent voters opted for a Democratic candidate by 12 points, according to exit polls. Today, Democrats are winning independent voters in the generic ballot by 25 points.”