Kyle Kondik: “Over the course of the last three election cycles—including each of the most recent elections for all 100 Senate seats—just 29 of the 100 races were decided by less than 10 points.”
“That is still a higher percentage of at least somewhat competitive elections than we generally see each cycle in the House.”
“Despite being in the minority, Democrats have won more of the truly close races than Republicans have, and it’s something they likely will need to continue to do in both 2026 and into the future given the overall GOP skew of the Senate map.”
