The Races That Will Decide the Senate Are Toss Ups

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “We are making three Senate rating changes this week, all in favor of Democrats. North Carolina moves to Leans Democratic, and Alaska and Ohio are now Toss-ups.”

“This makes the Democrats’ path to the majority clearer, but we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate.”

“Democrats need to win all four of our Toss-ups to get to a majority, while Republicans need just one to preserve a nominal 50-50 majority because they hold the vice presidential tiebreaker.”

“Democrats also have their work cut out for them in the four Toss-ups, albeit for different reasons. In Maine and Michigan, there are questions about the quality of the Democratic candidates. In Alaska and Ohio, meanwhile, the questions are more about Democrats’ ability to overcome each state’s pronounced GOP lean.”