Republicans Are the Real Winners of Michigan’s Primary

The Economist: “Before knowing the nominees, our forecast estimated that an average Democrat running against an average Republican in Michigan this year would have an 84% chance of holding the seat. Now that the race pits Dr El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, a former congressman, the party’s probability of victory has fallen to 48%—a decline so steep that Democrats’ chances of controlling the Senate dipped from 53% to 49%.”

”Although most pundits’ doubts about Dr El-Sayed’s electability focus on his strident progressivism, our model knows nothing about his ideology: quantifying political positions is hard for candidates with no legislative voting history. Instead, three non-ideological factors explain the model’s relatively dim view of his chances in November’s election.”

Mediaite: CNN data guru says Dem odds of winning Michigan seat have fallen dramatically.