The Downballot: “Across 110 special elections since January of 2025, Democrats have, on average, overperformed Harris by 12.5 points and Joe Biden by 8.4 points. Together, these figures suggest a calculated political environment in which Democrats would be favored by 12 points—slightly better, even, than what the same data was telling us in 2018.”
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Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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