Nate Silver: “Democrats’ Senate chances are now between 63 percent and 69 percent in all three versions of FLIPR, including 65 percent in our headline ‘Deluxe’ version.”
“For what it’s worth, FLIPR is in pretty strong alignment with prediction markets, which have Democrats at 61 percent to win the Senate.”
“Conversely, expert ratings imply a much different political environment. The Cook Political Report, for example, counts seven races as ‘toss-ups,’ including states like New Hampshire where models and prediction markets imply that Democrats are heavy favorites.”
“This cautious view is misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterm elections, especially when the incumbent president is as unpopular as Trump. And it’s becoming harder to justify by the day.”
