Charlie Cook: “Today there are at least seven Senate contests in which serious polls put the difference between the two candidates within the margin of error. There are five Republican-held Senate seats with margin-of-error races. Three are held by incumbents: Sens. Dan Sullivan of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Jon Husted of Ohio. The other two, Iowa and Texas, are open seats. This is not counting the open seat in North Carolina, which has become hopeless for the GOP… I am also keeping a close eye on Kansas, where I would not be surprised to see it become very close.”
“Most polling shows Democrat Troy Jackson ahead of Collins in Maine by a few points, but Jackson is an underwhelming candidate and his advertising doesn’t seem to be compensating for that… I’d put Collins as a narrow favorite thanks to her superior political skills, the effectiveness of her campaign operation, and Jackson having enough baggage to keep him from fully consolidating the Democratic vote.”
“At the same time, my hunch is that Texas does flip. In state Attorney General Ken Paxton, Republicans managed to nominate perhaps the one possible candidate who could lose to a Democrat… If Democrat James Talarico wins, it will be despite his blue jersey and more-progressive views, not because of them. My advice to him if he wins: Rent an apartment, don’t buy a house.”
