Foreign Affairs: “There is little ambiguity about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aims. These attacks are designed to fracture the alliance’s unity, test the strength of members’ commitment to Article 5—the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all—and raise the cost of supporting Ukraine. Less expected, however, has been the speed with which his deniable campaign has become undeniable.”
“NATO has not looked away. The alliance tracks these incidents, investigates them, and sometimes intercepts attacks. But a response built incident by incident is not deterrence, and Putin knows the difference. As long as each provocation costs Moscow nothing more than a downed drone, Putin has every reason to keep escalating.”
