Democrats’ Projected Majority Grows

Cook Political Report: “Republicans’ path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated. The outstanding question is how large Democrats’ majority will be in 2027; in the best-case scenario, their party could enter the new Congress with more seats than they had after successfully flipping control of the House in 2006 and 2018.”

“As a result of new polling and ad spending, we’re moving another 19 races in Democrats’ direction. Six districts — four of which are held by Republican incumbents — are moving from the Toss Up column to Lean Democrat. Two more open seats are moving from Lean Republican to Toss Up.”

“Following this latest round of ratings changes, Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House. In other words, 220 seats are rated either Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat. Republicans, meanwhile, are favored in 198 seats, rated Solid, Likely, or Lean Republican. That leaves 17 races rated as pure Toss Ups.”

“Now, we view the likeliest outcome as Democrats flipping between 12 and 22 seats. Democrats currently hold 215.”