Four Scenarios for How the Midterms Could Go

Nate Cohn: “There’s no formal definition of a ‘wave’ election, but by some measures a blue wave appears all but inevitable.”

“Whether a big wave translates into a large Democratic House majority and Democratic control of the Senate is a very different question. Republicans have major structural advantages that give them a chance to avoid major losses, even if a big blue wave comes ashore. Under some scenarios, Republicans might even feel like the winners.”

“If the Democratic Party’s strength can be thought of as a growing blue wave, the Republican Party’s advantage is that its House members and especially its senators are already far uphill. The big question isn’t whether a big wave is forming, but whether it will be large enough to overwhelm those Republicans standing on high ground.”