Democrats Favored to Capture House and Senate

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Our final ratings of the 2026 midterm show Democrats favored to easily win the House of Representatives.”

“The more interesting fight is in the Senate. After exiling Senate Democrats from red states in 2024, capturing all 50 Senate seats in the 25 states that voted for Trump all three times he was on the ballot, Republicans appear to be in serious jeopardy of squandering the Senate edge they just so recently secured.”

“At the start of the cycle, we wrote that Democrats netting two Senate seats in 2026 would be a good result for them, narrowing the Senate to a 51-49 Republican edge and teeing up a competitive race for the majority in 2028. Such a result now would be a success not for Democrats, but for Republicans, who now appear to be underdogs in the lion’s share of key races at the center of the Senate map.”