An Unscientific, Subjective Breakdown of the 2028 Dems

Nate Silver: “Usually, I take a highly quantitative approach to politics. There are statistical methods to quantify ideology on a left-right scale. Indeed, the 2028 candidates will inevitably be organized through progressive and moderate ‘lanes.’ It’s relevant to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s chances, for instance, that the left lane isn’t crowded because the two most prominent progressives either can’t run for president (Mr. Mamdani is a naturalized citizen) or won’t because of age (Bernie Sanders is 85).”

“But progressive versus moderate doesn’t fully capture how the Democrats will seek to differentiate themselves and to update the party’s image. Sometimes when you’re projecting into the future, you need to do something more subjective.”

“I decided to focus on another dimension: ‘fighter’ versus ‘uniter.’ For this, I looked at how they communicate. The Democratic Party is a broad coalition and offers multiple modes of appealing to voters in different parts of the country, which I believe gives the Democrats an advantage. Republicans in the Trump era are almost entirely stuck in one mode: fight.”