Trump Could Sink the GOP Again in 2028

Ronald Brownstein: “Judging by their choices since this month’s Democratic sweep, both the White House and congressional Republicans are vastly underestimating the party’s risk in 2028 if President Donald Trump remains as unpopular as he is now.”

“Dazed Republicans picking through the wreckage of their losses may console themselves with the thought that Trump’s dire approval ratings won’t pose as large a threat to the GOP in 2028, since he will be leaving the White House. But history strongly suggests that confidence is misplaced.”

“Outgoing presidents have cast a larger shadow than even many political professionals assume in the election to succeed them — especially when that retiring president faces widespread public discontent, as Trump does now. While popular outgoing presidents haven’t always ensured victory for their designated successors, the inverse has almost always been true: When the outgoing president is unpopular, his party has rarely won the election to replace him.”