Rachel Bade: “When Rep. Elise Stefanik last week notified President Donald Trump of her decision to drop out of the New York gubernatorial race, the commander-in-chief and his team made a soft, 11th-hour appeal to change her mind.

After Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman declared his candidacy days before, the president had raised eyebrows by publicly demurring from choosing a horse in the primary. But his equivocation, close Trump allies tell me, was to avoid embarrassing an old friend. And on the phone, the president and his team reminded Stefanik that he planned to endorse her eventually, these people say. He hoped to do so, I’m reliably told, around the state’s February primary convention.”

“By then, it was too late. Stefanik — aware that some Long Island Republicans she thought would have her back were instead digging for negative oppo — decided she didn’t need this.”

Politico: “Athletes and coaches are playing in some of the highest-profile races of the 2026 cycle, with control over Congress up for grabs in a year expected to favor Democrats.”

“In Georgia, former University of Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley is hoping to capitalize on his athletic experience — and his father’s football fame in Athens — to break through in a competitive Republican primary and unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Former NFL kicker Jay Feely is running for Congress in Arizona. And former MLB star Mark Teixeira is a front-runner for Rep. Chip Roy’s open House seat in Texas.”

Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-WY) is jumping into her state’s Senate race to replace departing Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Fox News reports.

Playbook: “Hageman, an attorney, has been a staunch MAGA figure in Washington since she successfully primaried then-Rep. Liz Cheney in 2022. She’ll be an early favorite in the race, and she quickly picked up support from Club for Growth PAC. But Wyoming Republicans’ musical chairs could yet have many rounds to go, as the state will have open races for Senate, governor and now House next year.l

Prominent anti-Trump critic George Conway filed paperwork Monday to run as a Democrat for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY), NewsNation reports.

Washington Post: “Conway is a conservative lawyer and commentator who helped found the anti-Trump Lincoln Project and gained national attention for his criticism of the president. He was once married to Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway.”

President Trump’s pollster released a new poll that showed Republicans are heading towards a blowout in the 2026 midterms.

The FabrizioWard poll found “the national general Congressional ballot currently favors Democrats by a seven-point margin.”

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) announced that she was suspending her bid for New York governor and would also be retiring from Congress, The Hill reports.

Her stunning announcement came shortly after Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a fellow ally of President Trump, jumped into the primary.

Karl Rove warned in the Wall Street Journal that President Trump is headed for a midterm disaster that will haunt him for the remainder of his presidency.

Writes Rove: “The presidents’ grotesqueries have to stop. His team has 10½ months before voters decide the shape of his final two years as president. Every day matters.”

He added: “It doesn’t look good for the GOP next year. The White House is on the wrong track. It had better get its messaging right — both its formal attempts at directing the conversation and Mr. Trump’s spontaneous social-media rants. Or else the president won’t like the outcome. A furious party in revolt against its executive, who is plagued by Democratic investigations and opposition. Time’s a-wasting.”

“This time last year, Sen. Jon Ossoff was considered to be the Democratic Party’s likeliest casualty on the 2026 Senate map,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“Now, Georgia Democrats increasingly are confident of the first-term lawmaker’s midterm chances, and Republicans are the ones sounding pessimistic.”

Evan Turnage (D), who is 33 years old, announced that he would challenge 77-year old Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) in a primary, a decision that sets up yet another battle between a senior incumbent and a younger opponent, Mississippi Today reports.

Said Turnage: “This is the poorest district in the poorest state in the country. It was that way when I was 1-year old, when Congressman Thompson was first elected, and it remains that way today. We need real plans for real change.”

NOTUS: “Rumors are swirling around Capitol Hill about an impending mass exodus of House Republicans following a number of surprise retirement announcements over the past few months.”

“With estimates about the number of Republicans ready to leave the House hovering around two dozen, NOTUS asked more than half of the House Republican Conference — over 120 members — whether they were considering another run for Congress or a run for the exits. While most lawmakers emphatically declared their intentions to run again, several mysteriously declined to commit to seeking reelection.”

Politico: “Even as this year’s election results have left many in the party encouraged they can mount a massive blue wave, next year’s battleground is a far cry from 2018 — with fewer Republican-held seats for Democrats to easily target.”

“Democrats don’t need to win as many seats this time around, netting just three seats rather than two dozen to claim a majority. But the hill to reach a comfortable majority like the 235 seats they held after the last blue wave has grown much steeper, driven by multiple rounds of gerrymandering — including ongoing redistricting in several states that threatens to erode the battlefield even further.”

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) holds double-digit leads over both Rep. Elise Stefanik (R), 49% to 30% and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R), 50% to 25%, in her re-election bid, according to a new Siena Poll.

“Elon Musk has begun funding the GOP’s House and Senate campaigns for the 2026 midterms — an indication his relationship with President Trump has thawed since their messy breakup earlier this year,” Axios reports.

Wall Street Journal: “Polls show Mace’s sharp-elbowed style appeals to a slice of Palmetto State voters who like to see their representative willing to fight. But in a crowded field of Republican candidates, she has spent much of her campaign enmeshed in personal controversies, from a fight over an airport-security detail to an acrimonious breakup with her ex-fiancé.”

“She has alienated much of the GOP political class in South Carolina, with critics saying Mace is turning friends into foes. Her run will test whether her outsider status will work against her, or boost her with antiestablishment voters in the GOP primary in June.”