New Wall Street Journal polls:
“The survey finds that the race in every state—and therefore the presidential election—is too close to call. If Harris wins the states where she leads in the poll, she would win a narrow majority in the Electoral College.”
“Former president Barack Obama on Thursday made a direct, impassioned plea to black men to support Vice President Kamala Harris — a key demographic she is struggling to mobilize — at times admonishing them for thinking about sitting out the presidential contest and suggesting sexism might be at play,” the Washington Post reports.
Said Obama: “On the one hand, you have somebody who grew up like you, knows you, went to college with you, understands the struggles and pain and joy that comes from those experience.”
In Trump, he added: “You have someone who has consistently shown disregard, not just for the communities, but for you as a person. And you are thinking about sitting out?”
New York Times: A stern Obama tells Black men to drop “excuses” and support Harris.
“Donald Trump criticized Detroit while delivering remarks to an economic group there on Thursday, saying the whole country would end up like the city if his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, is elected,” ABC News reports.
Said Trump: “The whole country will be like — you want to know the truth? It’ll be like Detroit. Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s your president.”
Judge Tanya Chutkan rejected Donald Trump’s bid to keep from the public a large appendix containing exhibits to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s 165-page immunity filing, but gave him 7 days to try to get a higher court to overrule her.
“Marshawn Lynch, the former star NFL running back and Super Bowl champ, hinted at a possible run for mayor of Oakland on the podcast he co-hosts with his longtime agent, Doug Hendrickson, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom,” Politico reports.
“President Joe Biden said Congress should come back to pass emergency relief after Hurricane Milton wreaked havoc overnight on Florida’s Gulf Coast, leaving millions without power and causing tornadoes that killed at least ten people,” Bloomberg reports.
Said Biden: “I think the Congress should be coming back and moving on emergency needs immediately.”
“Former President Bill Clinton will hit the trail this weekend to begin what is expected to be a very targeted push across battleground states through Election Day,” CNN reports.
“The former president will seek to appeal to rural voters, among whom polls have shown Vice President Kamala Harris is performing worse than some of the last few Democratic nominees, particularly among younger Black men.”
FCC chair Jessica Rosenworcel denounced Donald Trump’s “threats against free speech” after he attacked CBS and called for the network to “lose its license” over a recent “60 Minutes” interview with Kamala Harris, CNN reports.
Said Rosenworcel: “While repeated attacks against broadcast stations by the former President may now be familiar, these threats against free speech are serious and should not be ignored. As I’ve said before, the First Amendment is a cornerstone of our democracy.”
“The Scranton Fire Department firefighters’ union had nothing to do with several signs stating ‘Scranton Firefighters for Trump’ held and displayed by members of the public at the former president’s campaign event Wednesday in Scranton,” the Scranton Times reports.
A new Muhlenberg College poll in Pennsylvania’s 7th congressional district finds Rep. Susan Wild (D) leading Ryan Mackenzie (R), 51% to 45%.
In the presidential race, Kamala Harris holds a 50% to 47% lead over Donald Trump in the district that Joe Biden barely won four years ago.
Nate Silver: “Polling data over the past week or so has been a mixed bag, but with more bright spots for Trump than for Harris if you squint. However, sentiment about the race has shifted in a GOP direction, sometimes to the point of outright panic by Democrats, in a way that isn’t really justified by the polling.”
“Versus a week ago, Trump has gained 0.3 points in our national average, 0.9 points in MI, 0.8 points in WI, 0.4 points in NV, 0.3 points in PA, 0.2 points in NC and 0.1 points in AZ. Harris has gained 0.3 points in GA.”
“So a slight move in a Trump direction, and the race is on the verge of becoming truly 50/50 rather than virtually 50/50. But this is pretty minor movement and could also just reflect noise.”
Kamala Harris accepted an offer to take part in a CNN Town Hall meeting on October 23 after Donald Trump refused to participate in the proposed CNN debate on that same night.
“Donald Trump will support making interest on car loans fully tax deductible, the latest in a suite of tax-cut promises the Republican presidential nominee has made in the weeks before Election Day,” CNBC reports.
“Shares of Trump Media soared, keeping up a recent rally that has reversed some of the Truth Social operator’s steep losses from a recent weekslong sell off,” CNBC reports.
“David, I know you just spoke. Just come here. Stay, like for two seconds, because nobody wants to hear you right now. Just come up.”
— Donald Trump, at a rally in Pennsylvania, to U.S. Senate candidate David McCormick (R).
Jonathan Last: “To my eyes, this suggests that Trump’s 2016 and 2020 numbers should be substantially similar to his 2024 numbers.”
“Which in turn means that the polling on Trump’s vote share today is (a) probably accurate and (b) close to his ceiling pretty much across the board.”
“None of this means that Kamala Harris will win. But it does suggest that there won’t be surprises on Election Day in Trump’s column. He’s going to hit the numbers he’s at.”
“Does this make you feel any better?”
“For me, the answer is yes, because it clarifies what Harris has to do. She’s not fighting a phantom. Her task is to find that extra point or two and turn out her people. That seems more achievable than beating a smoke monster who might magically outperform his polling by +3.”
Just for members: The latest edition of Inside Elections.
With less than a month to go before Election Day, this issue features the latest in the fight for the Senate and House including updated analysis of dozens of races around the country and rating changes in two Senate races and eight House races.
Republicans have the advantage to take control of the Senate while the fight for the House looks as close as the presidential race.
The issue also includes a deep dive into polling in North Carolina’s 1st District and takeaways from the vice presidential debate.
If you’re not a member, check out our membership options for instant access.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.