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Fact-Checking Is Not a Political Strategy

October 3, 2024 at 8:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Tyler Austin Harper: “The 45th president has been subjected to a sustained fact-checking campaign for the better part of a decade. I do not think it’s an exaggeration to say that no politician in American history has been fact-checked more thoroughly than Donald Trump.”

“And yet, all those years of myth-busting have had next to zero impact on his electoral viability. He managed to attract new voters in the last election. And even as he spouts racist nonsense about immigrants—thoroughly myth-busted by journalists—he is increasing his share of non-college-educated voters of color in this election.”

“My point isn’t that Democrats should give up on fact-checking, but that they need to remember that debunking is not a substitute for politics.”

Senate Republicans Make Sudden Change in Ad Strategy

October 3, 2024 at 8:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Senate Republicans’ campaign arm is making a last-minute shift in its TV advertising strategy in the face of a growing spending disparity with Democrats in key races,” Politico reports.

“The National Republican Senatorial Committee is canceling all its remaining independent expenditure buys and redirecting that money toward ‘hybrid’ ads… Those ads are purchased in conjunction with the candidate’s campaign and at the lower TV ad rate offered to candidates — allowing the NRSC’s money to be spent more efficiently.”

Health Care Is on the Ballot Again

October 3, 2024 at 7:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ron Brownstein: “Vance’s evasive response to the questions about health care, on a night when he took the offensive on most other subjects, exposed how fraught most Republicans still consider the issue, seven years after Trump’s attempt to repeal the ACA died in the Senate. But Vance’s equivocations should not obscure the magnitude of the changes in the program that he has signaled could be coming in a second Trump presidency, particularly in how the law treats people with significant health problems.”

“The ACA provisions that mandate risk-sharing between the healthy and sick underpin what polls show has become its most popular feature: the requirement that insurance companies offer coverage, at comparable prices, to people with preexisting conditions.”

“In numerous appearances, Vance has indicated that he wants to change the law to restore to insurance companies the ability to segregate healthy people from those with greater health needs. This was a point that Tim Walz, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, accurately stressed during the debate.”

Iran Is Not Ready for War With Israel

October 3, 2024 at 7:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Arash Azizi: “This is a terrifying moment for Iran. Khamenei has long pursued what he calls a ‘no peace, no war’ strategy: Iran supports regional militias opposed to Western interests and the Jewish state but avoids actually getting into a war. The approach was always untenable.”

“But Iran is not ready for an all-out war: Its economically battered society does not share its leaders’ animus toward Israel, and its military capabilities don’t even begin to match Israel’s sophisticated arsenal. Iran lacks significant air-defense capabilities on its own, and Russia has not leapt to complement them.”

Said a source in close to the Iranian military: “We don’t have a fucking air force… I don’t know what they are thinking.”

Jim Jordan Angles to Be House GOP Leader

October 3, 2024 at 6:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) appears to be making an early play for Republican leader in case House Republicans lose the majority in November or decide to ditch House Speaker Mike Johnson, the Washington Post reports.

His strategy involves positioning himself “as a potential bridge between House Republicans and the MAGA front line.”

J.D. Vance Rattled Tim Walz by Being Nice

October 3, 2024 at 6:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) went into the vice-presidential debate with a plan to surprise Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz by being shockingly… super-duper nice,” Axios reports.

“It worked. The result was a refreshingly substantive, even cheery debate — a flashback to a less polarized America, and a preview of what’s possible if the nation’s current rage subsides. But it was a premeditated political maneuver to rattle Walz.”

“Walz was girded for war against Vance, who has spent the past 10 weeks defending past controversial remarks.”

“Instead, Vance greeted Walz with a big smile, and the two shook hands warmly right off the bat. It set a very different tone than the icy encounter between the top-of-the-ticket nominees, Vice President Harris and former President Trump, when they debated last month.”

Cassidy Hutchinson Backs Harris

October 3, 2024 at 6:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Trump White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson told MSNBC she was voting for Kamala Harris for president.

How Eric Adams Could Beat His Bribery Case

October 3, 2024 at 6:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The optics, as they say, are not good. But as it stands now, the criminal case against Adams is not a sure thing — particularly on the headline-grabbing bribery charge that has predictably garnered the most attention.”

“There are several reasons for that, but a big one is that over the last 25 years, the Supreme Court has steadily eroded federal public anti-corruption law, and Congress — whose members have been among the principal beneficiaries — has sat idly by. As a result, it would be a mistake to assume that Adams is doomed to a conviction, at least based on what we currently know about the case.”

New York Times: Prosecutors warn of more charges and defendants in Adams graft case.

The Untold Secrets of January 6

October 3, 2024 at 6:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Yesterday, in an unsealed legal filing, Smith gave his most complete look yet at the mountain of evidence he’s amassed against Trump in the case laying out his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.”

“In recent American history, there are probably few moments that have been more scrutinized than the months leading up to Jan. 6, 2021, and yet the filing’s 165 pages were filled with new details and anecdotes. (That’s in part because Smith, unlike other investigators, spent more than a year knocking down Trump’s immunity claims and following lines of inquiry that none of the other investigations were able to.)”

Politico: “The filing contains details of private conversations Trump engaged in with Republican legislators and operatives throughout the post-election period in 2020, describing how they nearly all warned him that his allegations of election fraud were flimsy and false.”

Washington Post: “Prosecutors reconstructed behind-the-scenes interactions, including one [on Jan. 6] in which an aide rushed to the dining room to share with Trump, who had been watching the events on TV and tweeting, that action was being taken to ensure the safety of Pence, who was in the Capitol building. ‘The defendant looked at him and said only, ‘So what?’’ the filing alleges.”

Tim Walz’s ‘Missed Opportunity’

October 3, 2024 at 6:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Tim Walz was supposed to cut through the political nonsense to speak plainly to Americans about out-of-touch Republicans. But instead, some Democrats were alarmed by his performance at Tuesday’s debate and said he failed to capitalize on his opponents’ weaknesses,” Politico reports.

“Despite days of debate prep and weeks of delivering savaging critiques of former President Donald Trump on the campaign trail, they say Walz at times struggled to concisely argue why Vice President Kamala Harris would be a better president.“

Elaine Godfrey: You’re killing me, Walz.

Harris Maintains Small National Lead

October 3, 2024 at 6:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Emerson College national survey finds 50% of voters support Kamala Harris, while 48% support Donald Trump for president in 2024.

Toss Up Race Seems Impervious to Shocks

October 3, 2024 at 5:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“October surprises are coming at a dizzying pace. But the question is whether grave crises at home and abroad can break a dead heat between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in an election that’s already been marked by huge turmoil,” CNN reports.

“The White House is grappling with three challenges that could threaten the vice president’s hopes and offer an opening to the Republican nominee’s narrative of Biden-era negligence. A month before Election Day, the US faces the grave possibility of being dragged into a Middle East conflagration; a port workers’ strike could harm inflation-weary consumers; and political pressure is rising in the fallout of Hurricane Helene.”

“Trump, meanwhile, was hit on Wednesday by the unsealing of a 165-page document in which special counsel Jack Smith gives the fullest picture of his case in the federal 2020 election interference case.”

Trump Fear Factor Hits Senate GOP

October 3, 2024 at 5:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Senators are privately (and publicly) saying they hope Donald Trump stays out of the internal election to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader,” Axios reports.

“None of them know — or it’s a damn good secret — whether the former president will make an endorsement. But senators and advisors fear a Trump intervention could turn the secret ballot leader election into a public feud.”

House Republicans Ousted McCarthy One Year Ago

October 3, 2024 at 5:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“One year ago today, the House voted to oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker, triggering the end of his political career and beginning an especially embarrassing period for the House GOP,” Punchbowl News reports.

Liz Cheney to Campaign With Kamala Harris

October 3, 2024 at 5:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Vice President Kamala Harris will campaign alongside Liz Cheney, the most prominent Republican to cross party lines and endorse her, on Thursday in Wisconsin at a symbolic location: the birthplace of the Republican Party,” the New York Times reports.

“Ms. Harris and Ms. Cheney plan to appear together in a joint appeal to the sort of Republican voters who may retain conservative positions but are repelled by former President Donald Trump and his politics. Their event will take place in Ripon, Wis., the site of a series of meetings that helped lead to the foundation of the G.O.P. in 1854.”

Axios: “Harris, speaking from the schoolhouse that’s considered the birthplace of the GOP, is expected to laud Cheney as a patriot for putting her country over her party, per the campaign official.”

CNN: Liz Cheney to campaign with Harris in battleground state stop.

The Big Tax Hike Coming in Just Over a Year

October 3, 2024 at 5:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In 2017, Congress passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which may be better known as the Trump tax cuts. Due to the way fiscal policy works in the United States, a large component of the bill was temporary,” Bloomberg reports.

“And starting in 2026, millions of households are due to see higher taxes if the bill isn’t extended or a new one is passed.”

Trump Would Revoke Status for Haitian Migrants

October 3, 2024 at 5:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump on Wednesday said that he would revoke Temporary Protected Status for the Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, and deport them if he is reelected in November,” CNN reports.

Said Trump: “You have to remove the people, and you have to bring them back to their own country. They are, in my opinion, it’s not legal.”

Trump Still Won’t Release His Medical Records

October 3, 2024 at 5:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Now, just over a month from an election that could make Mr. Trump, 78, the oldest person ever to serve as president (82 years, 7 months and 6 days when his term would end in January 2029), he is refusing to release even the most basic information about his health.”

“If he wins, Mr. Trump could enter the Oval Office with an array of potentially worrisome issues, medical experts say: cardiac risk factors, possible aftereffects from the July assassination attempt and the cognitive decline that naturally comes with age, among others.”

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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