A new Siena poll in New York finds Kamala Harris has a double-digit lead over Donald Trump, 55% to 42%, following a Trump rally last night where he claimed he can win it.

Gov. Tim Walz is intensifying his preparations for the vice-presidential debate with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg serving as a stand-in for his opponent, Sen. J.D. Vance, the New York Times reports.

Hillary Clinton said that voters still deciding between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were less likely to be swayed by the details of Harris’s policies than they were by the candidates’ starkly different approaches to governing, the New York Times reports.

Said Clinton: “At the end of the day, this is a contest between freedom and oppression, between democracy and autocracy, between bringing people together and further dividing us, and that’s what has to be communicated every single day between now and the election.”

“Elon Musk is using his social media platform to promote misinformation about the presidential candidates in the lead up to the November election, amplifying false claims Wednesday about a Trump rally bomb threat and immigrants eating pets in Ohio,” CNN reports.

“While Musk’s posting of provocative, incendiary content on X is nothing new, the speed with which he has promoted false claims in recent days is striking given the breadth of Musk’s digital reach, with his posts regularly finding their way atop users’ feeds.”

“J.D. Vance said over the weekend that he ‘learned my lesson’ on getting ahead of Donald Trump after accidentally announcing an abortion position Trump later disavowed. He might still have some work to do,” Semafor reports.

“Vance’s nonstop media tour and willingness to jump into the fray on just about any topic has repeatedly led to the vice presidential nominee sketching in Trump’s vague policy positions himself. It has some allies worried that he’s overstepping his bounds.”

Said one GOP senator: “It’s never good for the vice president to be in front of the president. It’s just part of the learning experience for him.”

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We continue to view the race for the chamber as effectively a 50-50 proposition.”

“The real playing field may be smaller than what we saw in the 2022 election cycle, if current outside spending is any indication.”

Time: “On the Democratic side, 28 of the first 30 biggest expenses listed on the Federal Election Commision summary for Kamala Harris’ campaign are related to media buys and production—a.k.a. ads. On the Republican side, 20 of the 30 biggest GOP checks backing Donald Trump’s return to the White House are for paid media and mailers.”

“Put plainly as told through invoices: campaigns are investing far more in what voters come across when they’re looking for entertainment or a distraction than sending someone to knock on their door for a chat.”

“That priority is about to become far more apparent in the handful of swing states, where the final push toward Election Day is slated to see a half-billion dollars in advertising go live.”

“The Harris campaign and allies have booked more than $330 million on TV and radio over roughly the next seven weeks. Trump’s team has booked a little less than $200 million. The disparity stems only partly from Harris’ superior fundraising. It’s also due to an early investment by the now-shuttered Biden campaign to book ad time on the stations in key markets months ahead of time, while Trump was still using much of his campaign’s coffers to pay lawyers.”

A new Washington Post poll in Pennsylvania finds Kamala Harris barely ahead of Donald Trump among likely voters, 48% to 47%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Bob Casey (D) is just ahead of challenger Dave McCormick (R) 47% to 46%.

Jonathan Martin: “There are really only three states that will decide the presidential election: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.”

“If Vice President Kamala Harris can’t carry Pennsylvania, her only hope is on a Southern strategy. Harris must win either Georgia or North Carolina. She has no other path to the White House. The election could well be determined when polls close in the eastern time zone. (Well, yes, after the ballots are all counted.)”

“This isn’t to say the other four battlegrounds — Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona — aren’t important. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, which her aides acknowledge is a highly challenging state, she’d still need to pick up one of the two Western states as well as one of the two Southern states to win — so long as she carries Michigan and Wisconsin.”

“Yet none of those other four battlegrounds are relevant if Trump first blocks her in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.”

Check it out on the interactive map.

Washington Monthly: “The 78-year-old Republican nominee is holding fewer campaign events than in his two previous runs for the presidency. Can he pick up the pace?”

A new Morning Consult poll finds 46% of voters said they trust Kamala Harris to handle the economy — the same share as Donald Trump.

Key takeaway: “This isn’t about voters preferring Harris over Trump so much as it is about voters preferring Harris over Biden.”

“For several weeks after Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, media observers and critics questioned her decision to remain inaccessible to the press. Some Donald Trump allies assailed the vice president as incapable of getting through an interview,” CNN reports.

“Half a dozen interviews later, her media strategy is taking shape, even if viewers in New York and Washington might not be seeing it. In recent days, Harris has granted sit-downs to local media outlets and fielded questions in unconventional forums to target crucial swing state and minority voters. Her running mate Tim Walz is doing the same.”

However, from Axios: “The Harris-Walz ticket is on pace to do fewer interviews and press conferences than any major party’s presidential pairing in modern U.S. history.”