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Trump’s Nemesis Returns to Protect the Vote in Georgia

September 21, 2024 at 10:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Brad Raffensperger is all too familiar with attempts to subvert U.S. democracy,” the Financial Times reports.

“The Secretary of State for Georgia was on the receiving end of the infamous Donald Trump phone call after the 2020 election, when the then-president urged his fellow Republican to ‘find’ the 11,780 votes he needed to win the state. Raffensperger refused and death threats ensued.”

“Almost four years on from the unrest that followed the last presidential election, Raffensperger is again in the crosshairs of the Trump faithful, as he battles a MAGA-friendly majority on the swing state’s election board who passed last-minute laws that critics claim will pave the way for post-election legal chaos, if not violent unrest.”

Said Raffensperger: “There are a lot of bad actors out there.”

Why Forecast Models Aren’t Any Better Than Polls

September 21, 2024 at 8:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Natalie Jackson: “Forecasts based on polls and election ‘fundamentals,’ like what FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Nate Silver produce, are more intriguing from an empirical standpoint. The statistical machinations are genuinely challenging and interesting to work on: combining national and state-level polls, economic factors, incumbency factors, and vote history, and then spinning it all up into a state-by-state prediction that can be used to simulate presidential elections. We’re talking thousands and thousands of lines of code.”

“Sounds pretty empirical, right? It is, in the sense that you build a big model that takes in a ton of data and puts out a ton of data. But every decision about what goes into the model is subjective: The modeler decides what polls are used, whether they are adjusted for the quality or past accuracy of the pollster, how much any individual poll is able to move the trend, which economic indicators to use, which political factors are important, and how all those are coded in. Make a different decision at any step, and you change the model’s predictions…”

“We can calculate probabilities all day long, but we have no idea what their accuracy is. Polls have margins of error, plus additional error. Models have error of their own. Judgment calls made by those constructing the models have error. We don’t know how big all of that cumulative error is.”

How Trump Demanded Investigations of His Foes

September 21, 2024 at 8:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “A look back at the cases of 10 individuals brings a pattern into clearer focus: After Mr. Trump made repeated public or private demands for them to be targeted by the government, they faced federal pressure of one kind or another.”

“The broad outlines of those episodes have been previously reported. But a closer examination reveals the degree of concern and pushback against Mr. Trump’s demands inside the White House.”

“And it highlights how closely his expressed desires to go after people who had drawn his ire were sometimes followed by the Justice Department, F.B.I. or other agencies. Even without his direct order, his indirect influence could serve his ends and leave those in his sights facing expensive, time-consuming legal proceedings or other high-stress inquiries.”

For Your Weekend Listening

September 21, 2024 at 8:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live for members.

Making sense of the flood of polls following last week’s debate.

Join now to continue reading.

Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.

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A Dramatic Rise in Pregnant Women Dying in Texas

September 21, 2024 at 7:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The number of women in Texas who died while pregnant, during labor or soon after childbirth skyrocketed following the state’s 2021 ban on abortion care — far outpacing a slower rise in maternal mortality across the nation,” NBC News reports.

“From 2019 to 2022, the rate of maternal mortality cases in Texas rose by 56%, compared with just 11% nationwide during the same time period.”

Why Trump’s Vow to Lower Grocery Costs Will Backfire

September 21, 2024 at 7:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump’s vow to lower food prices clashes with his love of tariffs and desire to deport migrant workers with economists warning those steps would drive up consumer prices at a time inflation is finally cooling,” Axios reports.

Voter Registration Spiking Among Young Adults

September 21, 2024 at 7:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Voter registration is breaking records as Election Day approaches, particularly among young people, including many first-time voters,” USA Today reports.

Harris Posts Huge Cash Advantage Over Trump

September 21, 2024 at 7:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Kamala Harris’s campaign raised more than four times as much as Donald Trump’s effort in August, capitalizing on the surge of Democratic enthusiasm during the first full month of her presidential campaign,” the Washington Post reports.

“But the super PACs aligned with Trump are continuing to raise large sums from high-dollar donors as the two candidates enter the final sprint before November.”

“Harris’s flush coffers have allowed her to build out a campaign operation with at least 2,000 aides and 312 offices across the battleground states at the same time she has held an advantage over Trump with her budget for television and digital ads. The Trump campaign, which is relying on outside groups to power its ground game, has not disclosed comparative details about the size of its operation.”

New Ways to Cast the GOP as ‘Team Misogyny’

September 21, 2024 at 7:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In a race between a Democrat who could be America’s first female president and a Republican who has been found liable for sexual abuse, the issue of gender was always going to be inescapable,” the New York Times reports.

“But this week, the subject surged to the forefront of the fall contest in new and vivid ways, as Democrats found fresh fuel for their argument that today’s Republican Party is disrespectful of women and their autonomy — sometimes with dangerous consequences.”

Said Vice President Kamala Harris: “It’s clear that they just don’t trust women.”

Vance Was Told Haitian Immigrant Rumors Were False

September 21, 2024 at 7:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump campaign continued to push false claims about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, even after a top city leader told a campaign staffer for its vice presidential nominee ahead of this month’s presidential debate the rumors were ‘baseless,’ the city’s mayor said,” CNN reports.

Harris Leads in Pennsylvania

September 20, 2024 at 9:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Spotlight PA/MassINC poll in Pennsylvania finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate race, 50% to 46%.

Harris Tells Wisconsin Rally to Ignore the Polls

September 20, 2024 at 9:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kamala Harris on Friday night told rallygoers in Wisconsin not to pay too much attention to the polls, The Hill reports.

Said Harris: “46 days until the election. And, what we know, this is going to be a tight race until the very end. So, let’s not pay too much attention to the polls because let’s be clear, we are the underdog in this race and we have some hard work ahead of us.”

Why Couldn’t Republicans Push Mark Robinson Out?

September 20, 2024 at 5:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Last: “Up until last night, the GOP in North Carolina could have replaced its gubernatorial candidate. Robinson is going to lose this race. He’s going to lose it so badly that he might pull the top of the ticket down with him. And he’s going to lose it dishonorably. He isn’t Barry Goldwater going down to defeat because of his principles.”

“What happened is that the Republican Party of North Carolina got hijacked by an insane person. And when the shit hit the fan, the NC GOP didn’t have the ability to push this insane person aside.”

“This is the difference between a healthy institution and a failed institution.”

For members: Trump Risks Being Doomed by Ally in North Carolina

Harris Slams ‘Trump Abortion Bans’

September 20, 2024 at 5:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Kamala Harris delivered an impassioned speech about abortion rights on Friday in Georgia, accusing Republicans who support abortion bans of causing unnecessary suffering as she described the far-reaching, painful and even deadly consequences of such policies,” the New York Times reports.

“Ms. Harris’s speech in Georgia, a top battleground state where she has narrowly trailed in polls, signaled a more combative and nimble approach in the closing weeks of the presidential campaign.”

Politico: “It’s the vice president’s latest attempt to hold Trump responsible for the near-total abortion bans that have taken effect in more than a third of states since Roe’s fall. For weeks, she has been highlighting stories of women who were denied abortions in emergency situations and families who have struggled to receive fertility care, like in vitro fertilization, to demonstrate the sweeping consequences of such laws.”

House GOP Trails Badly in Fundraising

September 20, 2024 at 5:15 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The NRCC raised $9.7 million in August, $12.6 million less than the DCCC raised over the same time period,” Punchbowl News reports.

“The NRCC has $70.75 million on hand, $16 million less than the DCCC.”

Quote of the Day

September 20, 2024 at 4:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“That’s the ‘Roy Cohn School of Management.’ You demonize and demonize and demonize and give credit to nobody else. And that is the antithesis of good leadership. That’s the antithesis of good character. That’s the antithesis of being ethical. That’s who Donald Trump is. I’ve known him for 25 years. I’m never going to say we were best friends, but he is the most unethical… Lacks character, dishonest person… I’ve ever done business with or worked with.”

— Mark Cuban, speaking to Brian Tyler Cohen.

Trump Has No Plans to Pull Endorsement of Mark Robinson

September 20, 2024 at 4:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump is facing calls both from his allies and from within his own campaign to pull his endorsement from scandal-plagued North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson,” NBC News reports.

“So far, however, there are no plans for the former president to formally drop him.”

“There are pockets of advisers within the Trump campaign who have quietly been urging him to withdraw his endorsement of Robinson, but so far those requests have fallen on deaf ears.”

Trump Lobbies to Change Nebraska Law

September 20, 2024 at 4:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump spoke by phone this week with a Nebraska state senator as part of a last-minute push to change how the state allocates its electoral votes and block the easiest path Vice President Kamala Harris has to win the White House,” the Washington Post reports.

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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